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Electoral Cycles in Perceived Corruption : International Empirical Evidence

Potrafke, Niklas - 2019

I examine whether elections influence perceived corruption in the public sector. Perceived corruption in the public sector is measured by the reversed Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption Index (CPI). The dataset includes around 100 democracies over the period 2012-2016, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892191

Electoral Cycles in Macroeconomic Forecasts

Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2021

This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226657

A new approach to solving production-appropriation games with many heterogeneous players

Cornes, Richard; Hartley, Roger; Tamura, Yuji - 2010

We set out a model of production and appropriation involving many players, who differ with respect to both resource endowments and productivities. We write down the model in a novel way that permits our analysis to avoid the proliferation of dimensions associated with the best response function...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270524

Mobility and conflict

Bhattacharya, Sourav; Deb, Joyee; Kundu, Tapas - 2012

We study the role of inter-group differences in the emergence of conflict. In our setting, two groups compete for the …, that the opposition can either accept, or reject and wage conflict. Expropriating a large share of resources increases … of conflict. In equilibrium, allocations are non-monotonic in the cost of mobility. Moreover, limited commitment with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280829

Alliances in the shadow of conflict

Ke, Changxia; Konrad, Kai A.; Morath, Florian - 2012

conflict and more intense fighting. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291510

Bargaining and Conflict with Up-Front Investments : How Power Asymmetries Matter

Schaller, Zachary - 2020

-contractible up-front investments to improve their bargaining position and gain advantage for possible future conflict. Bargaining is … efficient ex post, but we show that a player may prefer Conflict ex ante if there are sufficient asymmetries in strength. There … are two sources of this finding. First, up-front investments are more dissimilar between players under Conflict, and they …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843431

Economic, political and institutional determinants of budget deficits in the European Union

Bayar, Ali; Smeets, Bram - 2009

Using an extended data set of EU countries ranging from 1971-2006 and relevant econometric methods, we investigate the economic, political, and institutional determinants of government deficits in the EU. The results show a strong opportunistic behaviour of policymakers which leads to political...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264607

Business taxes and the electoral cycle

Foremny, Dirk; Riedel, Nadine - 2012

The purpose of this paper is to assess whether politicians manipulate the timing of tax rate changes in a strategic way to maximize reelection prospects. To do so, we exploit the German local business tax as a testing ground which is set autonomously by German municipalities. As election dates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280837

Using real-time data to test for political budget cycles

Jong-A-Pin, Richard; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; de Haan, Jakob - 2012

We use real-time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288232

Has the stability and growth pact impeded political budget cycles in the European Union?

Mink, Mark; de Haan, Jakob - 2005

This paper examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivariate model for the period 1999-2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that the Stability and Growth Pact has not restricted fiscal policy makers in the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261324

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