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Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs
Chernov, Mikhail; Bauer, Michael - 2021
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222193
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Micro Jumps, Macro Humps : Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated Hank Model
Auclert, Adrien - 2020
We estimate a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model with sticky household expectations that matches existing microeconomic evidence on marginal propensities to consume and macroeconomic evidence on the impulse response to a monetary policy shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842965
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Interest Rate Spillovers from the United States : Expectations, Term Premia and Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities
Mehrotra, Aaron N. - 2019
We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of long-term rates in the United...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860570
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Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715
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Great Volatility and Great Moderation
Grazzini, Jakob - 2019
We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general …-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an … important role in shaping volatility at the aggregate level. Moreover, asymmetries in the economic structure sometimes had an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892302
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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020
This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829
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Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2020
-varying levels of volatility and skewness for the same variables; and iii) supercycles of borrowing and deleveraging. All of these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825400
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Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2021
We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers’ bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235101
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Behavioural Credit Cycles
Delli Gatti, Domenico; Iannotta, Gabriele - 2022
We explore the intertwined dynamics of asset prices and the macroeconomy in a Behavioural model of Credit Cycles (BCC) characterized by a credit friction à la Kiyotaki and Moore and heterogeneous expectations cum heuristic switching à la Brock and Hommes. This behavioural approach allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244347
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External sovereign debt in a monetary union: Bailouts and the role of corruption
Achury, Carolina; Koulovatianos, Christos; Tsoukalas, … - 2011
We build a tractable stylized model of external sovereign debt and endogenous international interest rates. In corrupt economies with rent-seeking groups stealing public resources, a politico-economic equilibrium is characterized by permanent fiscal impatience which leads to excessive issuing of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277405