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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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The Frequency of One-Day Abnormal Returns and Price Fluctuations in the Forex
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837673
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Volatility Forecasts for the RTS Stock Index : Option-Implied Volatility Versus Alternative Methods
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
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Witching Days and Abnormal Profits in the US Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2021
This paper examines price effects related to witching days in the US stock market using both weekly and daily data for three major indices, namely the Dow Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq, over the period 2000-2021. First it analyses whether or not anomalies in price behaviour arise from witching by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323081
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Cycles and Long-Range Behaviour in the European Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper uses a modelling framework which includes two singularities (or poles) in the spectral density function, one corresponding to the long-run (zero) frequency and the other to the cyclical (non-zero) frequency. The adopted specification is very general, since it allows for fractional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859046
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Persistence in the Realized Betas : Some Evidence for the Spanish Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of the realized betas within the one-factor CAPM for the six companies with the highest market capitalization included in the Spanish IBEX stock market index. Fractional integration methods are applied to estimate their degree of persistence at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838240
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Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Returns in the BRICS-T Countries : A Time-Varying Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
all countries except India; a negative and significant one on the financial sector of Brazil, Russia, India, and South … Africa; no effect on the transportation sector of Brazil, China, and South Africa, a negative one on those of India and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211113
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Gold and Oil Prices : Abnormal Returns, Momentum and Contrarian Effects
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper explores price (momentum and contrarian) effects on the days characterised by abnormal returns and the following ones in two commodity markets. Specifically, using daily Gold and Oil price data over the period 01.01.2009-31.03.2020 the following hypotheses are tested: H1) there are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827113
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Momentum Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market after One-Day Abnormal Returns
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper examines whether there exists a momentum effect after one-day abnormal returns in the cryptocurrency market. For this purpose a number of hypotheses of interest are tested for the BitCoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859990
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Abnormal Returns and Stock Price Movements : Some Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2021
developed (US, UK, Japan) and emerging (China, India) markets over the period 01.01.2010-01.01.2020. Average analysis, t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314758