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Drivers of Large Recessions and Monetary Policy Responses

Melina, Giovanni; Villa, Stefania - 2023

Shocks to capital utilization are introduced in a structural macroeconomic closed-economy model with financial frictions to capture disruptions on the ability of the capital stock to provide capital services used in production. Estimates for the Euro Area and the United States show that these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345602

Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators

Hristov, Nikolay - 2019

The current paper broadens the understanding of the role played by uncertainty in the context of macroeconomic fluctuations. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks for indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861435

Stimulant or Depressant? Resource-Related Income Shocks and Conflict

Gehring, Kai - 2019

We provide evidence about the mechanisms linking resource-related income shocks to conflict. Combining temporal variation in international drug prices with spatial variation in the suitability to produce opium, we show that higher drug prices reduce conflict over the 2002-2014 period in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860581

Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks

Demir, Banu; Javorcik, Beata K. Smarzynska; Michalski, … - 2021

strategy exploits the heterogeneous impact of the shock on importers. The results indicate that this relatively minor, non …-localized shock had a non-trivial economic impact on exposed firms and propagated downstream through affected suppliers. Additional … empirical tests, motivated by a simple theory, demonstrate that low-liquidity firms amplified its transmission …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315210

The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy

Görtz, Christoph - 2019

the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889175

Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks : The Perils of Recursive Orderings

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W. - 2022

A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014240870

Asymmetries in Risk Premia, Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Business Cycles

Görtz, Christoph - 2019

A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in recessions and declines much more gradually during the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207

The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession

Jacob, Nick; Mion, Giordano - 2021

We revisit UK’s poor productivity performance since the Great Recession by means of both a suitable theoretical framework and firm-level prices and quantities data for detailed products allowing us to both measure demand, and its changes over time, and distinguish between quantity total factor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314807

How Shocks Affect International Reserves? A Quasi-Experiment of Earthquakes

Jinjarak, Yothin; Noy, Ilan; Ta, Quy - 2021

We evaluate the change in international reserves in the aftermath of significant external shocks. We examine the response of international reserves to shocks by using a quasi-experimental setup and focusing on earthquakes. The estimation is done on a panel of 103 countries over the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315174

Systemic Risk and the Great Depression

Das, Sanjiv R. - 2019

We employ a unique hand-collected dataset and a novel methodology to examine systemic risk before and after the largest U.S. banking crisis of the 20th century. Our systemic risk measure captures both the credit risk of an individual bank as well as a bank’s position in the network. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892160