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Cognitive Uncertainty
Enke, Benjamin - 2019
explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857912
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Asymmetries in Risk Premia, Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Business Cycles
Görtz, Christoph - 2019
A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207
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Investment Responses to Tax Policy Under Uncertainty
Guceri, Irem - 2019
How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859606
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The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty
Easaw, Joshy; Grimme, Christian - 2021
We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562
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Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty
Gambetti, Luca; Tsoukalas, John D.; Korobilis, Dimitris; … - 2023
When agents’ information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348100
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Sectoral Uncertainty
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Tuzcuoglu, Kerem; Uzeda, Luis - 2022
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243086
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Bargaining with Intertemporal Maximin Payoffs
Martinet, Vincent - 2019
bargaining theory and mechanisms. We define a framework accounting for the economic environment, which specifies how the set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892119
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Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
Enke, Benjamin; Graeber, Thomas - 2021
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one’s utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex, they implicitly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311701
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Complexity and Time
Enke, Benjamin; Graeber, Thomas; Oprea, Ryan - 2023
risk preferences. First, all anomalies also arise in structurally similar atemporal decision problems involving valuation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358834
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Rent Taxation and its Intertemporal Welfare Effects in a Small Open Economy
Koethenbuerger, Marko; Poutvaara, Panu - 2021
Previous literature concludes that replacing wage taxation by taxes on a fixed factor or its rents benefits future generations. However, the effects of such steady-state gains on the transition generations have been left open. In this paper, we show that taxation of rents may also increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316664