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Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Laudenbach, Christine; Weber, Annika; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2021

We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals’ beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799727

How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals’ macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents’ expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887414

Uncertainty in Global Sourcing: Learning, Sequential Offshoring, and Selection Patterns

Larch, Mario; Navarro, Leandro - 2022

We analyse firms' sourcing decisions under institutional uncertainty in foreign countries. Firms can reduce their uncertainty by observing offshoring firms' behaviour. The model characterises a sequential offshoring equilibrium path, led by the most productive firms in the market. With multiple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470302

The Devil You Know: Rational Inattention to Discrete Choices when Prior Information Matters

Pellegrino, Bruno - 2023

In the seminal rational inattention model of Matĕjka and McKay (2015), logit demand arises from the discrete choice of agents who are uncertain about choice payoffs and who have access to a flexible, costly information acquisition technology (RI-logit). A notable limitation of this powerful...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290241

Audi Alteram Partem: An Experiment on Selective Exposure to Information

Montanari, Giovanni; Nunnari, Salvatore - 2023

We report the results of an experiment on selective exposure to information. A decision maker interested in learning about an uncertain state of the world can acquire information from one of two sources which have opposite biases: when informed on the state, they report it truthfully; when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469435

Ambiguity Attitudes and Surprises: Experimental Evidence on Communicating New Information within a Large Population Sample

Minnich, Aljoscha; Roggenkamp, Hauke; Lange, Andreas - 2023

us to analyze sociodemographic correlates of ambiguity attitudes and the updating of ambiguity attitudes to new …This paper investigates ambiguity attitudes for natural events (temperatures) and how they are updated following new … information. Using a general population sample, we first obtain baseline ambiguity attitudes for future weather events based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469576

Ambiguity Attitudes of Individuals and Groups in Gain and Loss Domains

Minnich, Aljoscha; Lange, Andreas - 2023

This study measures the differences in ambiguity attitudes of groups and individuals in the gain and loss domain. We … elicit the ambiguity attitudes and ambiguity-generated insensitivity for natural temperature events. We do not find … significant differences between individuals and groups in our main sample, yet higher ambiguity aversion and ambiguity …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469785

Rational information choice in financial market equilibrium

Muendler, Marc-Andreas - 2005

Adding a stage of signal acquisition to the expected utility model shows that Bayesian updating results in a well … is removed. Signals mutually benefit homogeneous investors because revealing asset price permits updating so that a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261163

Reason, Intuition, and Time

Sahm, Marco; von Weizsäcker, Robert K. - 2014

We study the influence of reason and intuition on decision making over time. Facing a sequence of similar problems, agents can either decide rationally according to expected utility theory or intuitively according to case-based decision theory. Rational decisions are more precise but create...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010480864

Counter Intuitive Learning: An Exploratory Study

Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Kirman, Alan P.; Pezanis-Christou, Paul - 2016

The literature on learning in unknown environments emphasises reinforcing on actions which produce positive results. But, in some cases, success requires shifting from a currently successful actions to others. We examine, experimentally and theoretically in a very simple framework, how...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011522529