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Does Crowd Support Drive the Home Advantage in Professional Soccer? Evidence from German Ghost Games During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Fischer, Kai - 2020

This paper examines the relation between crowd support and home advantage in professional football in making use of a unique “natural experiment” induced by restrictions due to the Corona pandemic: so-called ghost games in the top three German football divisions during the 2019/2020 season....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822694

Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks : The Case of Ghost Games During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Fischer, Kai - 2020

Betting markets have been frequently used as a natural laboratory to test the efficient market hypothesis and to obtain insights especially for financial markets. We add to this literature in analyzing the velocity and accuracy in which market expectations adapt to an exogenous shock: the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823156

Sports Clubs and Populism : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from German Cities

Foertsch, Mona; Rösel, Felix - 2023

Does social capital always promote solidarity and democracy, or are social networks such as sports clubs also … vulnerable to populism? We exploit quasi-experimental variation in sports club membership in German cities. Sports clubs are … with higher sports club membership rates in the wake of marginally promoted soccer teams. The populist momentum is however …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014261682

Economic Determinants of Regional Trade Agreements Revisited Using Machine Learning

Blöthner, Simon; Larch, Mario - 2021

While traditional empirical models using determinants like size and trade costs are able to predict RTA formation reasonably well, we demonstrate that allowing for machine detected non-linear patterns helps to improve the predictive power of RTA formation substantially. We employ machine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216253

Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734

READ-GER : Introducing German Real-Time Regional Accounts Data for Revision Analysis and Nowcasting

Lehmann, Robert - 2023

Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358678

Rising to the Challenge : Bayesian Estimation and Forecasting Techniques for Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2019

We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860573

Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data : New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros - 2020

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839767

Variable Selection and Forecasting in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Structural Breaks

Chudik, Alexander - 2020

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or exponential down-weighting. However, these studies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825993

Forecasting with Panel Data : Estimation Uncertainty Versus Parameter Heterogeneity

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2022

We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292495