with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through … countries even gain from the shock due to trade diversion. As a key methodological contribution, we quantify the role of GVCs … (in contrast to final goods trade) in transmitting the shock. In a hypothetical world without GVCs, the welfare loss due …

real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this … estimated framework to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q3. We find such a … shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008-2014 period. The same estimated model unveils the role …

the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the …

activity to a financial uncertainty shock during the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE … real activity of an uncertainty shock under different Taylor rules estimated with normal times vs. great recession data … (the latter associated with a stronger response to output). We find that the uncertainty shock-induced output loss …

residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach …

an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual …