Showing 1 - 10 of 194
Observability has been demonstrated to influence the adoption of pro-social behavior in a variety of contexts. This study implements a field experiment to examine the influence of observability in the context of a novel pro-social behavior: peer-to-peer solar. Peer-to-peer solar offers an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290083
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451399
Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208007
We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households' expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840692
changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change … decisions. While climate-change uncertainty makes it theoretically impossible to calculate expected profit losses of not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866409
In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222194
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability …-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy “dominates” monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244244
for the period of 1979–2016. We employ a dynamic model averaging approach to reduce model selection uncertainty and to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245625
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449