Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 1,997
Cover Image
Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows : Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations
Ciani, Emanuele - 2019
Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals' welfare. We examine how workers' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We construct a new pan-European dataset of reform...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861423
Cover Image
Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Expectation Formation Over the Firms's Life Cycle
Chen, Cheng - 2020
Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826001
Cover Image
The Global Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020
We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834352
Cover Image
Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty : Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters
Piccillo, Giulia; Poonpakdee, Poramapa - 2022
Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309488
Cover Image
Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News
Born, Benjamin; Dovern, Jonas; Enders, Zeno - 2021
Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251271
Cover Image
Associative Memory and Belief Formation
Enke, Benjamin - 2019
This paper experimentally studies the role of associative memory for belief formation. Real-world information signals are often embedded in memorable contexts. Thus, today's news, and the contexts they are embedded in, may cue the selective retrieval of similar past news and hence contribute to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859993
Cover Image
Micro Jumps, Macro Humps : Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated Hank Model
Auclert, Adrien - 2020
We estimate a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model with sticky household expectations that matches existing microeconomic evidence on marginal propensities to consume and macroeconomic evidence on the impulse response to a monetary policy shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842965
Cover Image
Diverse Risk Preferences and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model
Gomez, Thomas - 2020
their individual risk aversion. They choose between a fundamentalist and a trend-following rule to form expectations about … the price of a risky asset. Given their risk aversion, agents make a deterministic trade-off between mean and variance … both in choosing a forecasting heuristic and determining the number of risky assets to buy. Heterogeneous risk preferences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844420
Cover Image
Arbitrage and Beliefs
Khorrami, Paymon - 2020
We study a segmented-markets setting in which self-fulfilling volatility can arise. The only requirements are (i) asset price movements redistribute wealth across markets (e.g., equities rise as bonds fall) and (ii) some stabilizing force keeps valuation ratios stationary (e.g., cash flow growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825392
Cover Image
Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning
Cole, Stephen J. - 2020
The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831652