Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 2,592
Cover Image
Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters
Heinrich, Markus - 2020
This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676
Cover Image
Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression Models
Harding, Matthew - 2018
Pesaran (2015) and demonstrates that the extension to the estimation of dynamic quantile regression models is feasible under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908711
Cover Image
Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2007
This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by … than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276212
Cover Image
Forecasting Exports Across Europe : What are the Superior Survey Indicators?
Lehmann, Robert - 2019
In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861426
Cover Image
Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276226
Cover Image
The Usual Suspects : Does Risk Tolerance, Altruism, and Health Predict the Response to Covid-19?
Sheth, Ketki - 2020
Using a registered pre-analysis plan, we survey college students during California’s Stay-at-Home order to test whether compliance with social distancing requirements depends on key parameters that affect their marginal benefit from doing so. We find a quarter of students violated the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834356
Cover Image
Tracking and Predicting the German Economy : Ifo vs. Pmi
Lehmann, Robert - 2020
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839771
Cover Image
Volatility Forecasts for the RTS Stock Index : Option-Implied Volatility Versus Alternative Methods
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model forecasts, and forecasts combining those two using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
Cover Image
Forecasting with Panel Data : Estimation Uncertainty Versus Parameter Heterogeneity
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2022
We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292495
Cover Image
Long-Term Changes in Married Couples' Labor Supply and Taxes : Evidence from the Us and Europe Since the 1980s
Bick, Alexander - 2019
We document the time-series of employment rates and hours worked per employed by married couples in the US and seven European countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK) from the early 1980s through 2016. Relying on a model of joint household labor supply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892310