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Persistence in the Realized Betas : Some Evidence for the Spanish Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of the realized betas within the one-factor CAPM for the six companies with the highest market capitalization included in the Spanish IBEX stock market index. Fractional integration methods are applied to estimate their degree of persistence at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838240
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Modelling Persistence and Non-Linearities in the US Treasury 10-Year Bond Yields
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Yaya, … - 2022
This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the period 1962-2021 using two different fractional integration approaches including Chebyshev polynomials and Fourier functions respectively. The results for both quarterly and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306037
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To React or Not? Fiscal Policy, Volatility and Welfare in the EU-3
Malley, Jim - 2008
implications of countercyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity which is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773638
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Persistence in ESG and Conventional Stock Market Indices
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Plastun, Alex - 2021
This paper uses R/S analysis and fractional integration techniques to examine the persistence of two sets of 12 ESG and conventional stock price indices from the MSCI database over the period 2007-2020 for a large number of both developed and emerging markets. Both sets of results imply that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225332
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COVID-Induced School Closures in the US and Germany : Long-Term Distributional Effects
Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola - 2022
dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US …, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas, while in Germany the regional variation is much smaller. However …, Germany exhibited substantial variation by grade level, with a strong U-shaped patterns that implies that children attending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291960
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The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Degree of Persistence of US Stock Prices and Bond Yields
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Poza, Carlos - 2021
This paper analyses the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the degree of persistence of US monthly stock prices and bond yields using fractional integration techniques. The model is estimated first over the period January 1966-December 2020 and then a recursive approach is taken to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235116
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Volatility Forecasts for the RTS Stock Index : Option-Implied Volatility Versus Alternative Methods
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model forecasts, and forecasts combining those two using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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Witching Days and Abnormal Profits in the US Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2021
This paper examines price effects related to witching days in the US stock market using both weekly and daily data for three major indices, namely the Dow Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq, over the period 2000-2021. First it analyses whether or not anomalies in price behaviour arise from witching by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323081
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The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market
Breinlich, Holger - 2018
We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908678