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Forecasting Euro area real GDP: optimal pooling of information
Hülsewig, Oliver; Mayr, Johannes; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2008
This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264416
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Aggregation in large dynamic panels
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is … Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is derived, and the limiting behavior of the aggregation error is investigated … which 'observed' inflation persistence at the aggregate level is due to aggregation and/or common unobserved factors. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285540
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Comprehensive National Accounting for Carbon Emissions
Asheim, Geir B.; Yamaguchi, Rintaro - 2023
We consider the question of how to integrate carbon emissions in comprehensive national accounts for the purpose of indicating whether countries’ development is sustainable. We derive an expression for national saving which includes not only the national effect of current global emissions, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346316
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When Distrust Goes Viral : Causal Effects of COVID-19 on European Political Attitudes
Daniele, Gianmarco; Martinangeli, Andrea FM; … - 2021
To investigate how Covid-19 is shaping the way Europeans think about institutions, we conducted a large online survey experiment during the first wave of the epidemic (June). With a randomised survey ow we varied whether respondents are given Covid-related treatment questions first, before...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251268
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Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Europe - Past, Present and Future
Duernecker, Georg; Sanchez-Martinez, Miguel - 2021
This paper studies the effect of structural change on the historical path of aggregate labor productivity growth for a large sample of European countries, and it builds a quantitative multi-sector growth model to analyze the potential impact that structural change may have on future productivity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211112
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The Determinants and Effects of Social Connectedness in Europe
Bailey, Michael - 2020
We use aggregated data from Facebook to study the structure of social networks across European regions. Social connectedness declines strongly in geographic distance and at country borders. Historical borders and unions — such as the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Czechoslovakia, and East/West...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832199
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Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe
Égert, Balázs - 2021
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the factors that can cause price levels to diverge and which are at the root of different inflation rates in Europe including the EU-27. Among others, we study the structural and cyclical factors influencing market and non-market-based service, house...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316808
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Unemployment Persistence in Europe : Evidence from the 27 EU Countries
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Trejo, … - 2021
This paper investigates unemployment persistence in the 27 EU member states by applying fractional integration methods to quarterly data (both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted) from 2000q1 to 2020q4. The obtained evidence points to high levels of persistence in all cases. With seasonally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322015
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EU banks rating assignments: Is there heterogeneity between new and old member countries?
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Matousek, Roman; Stewart, Chris - 2010
We model EU countries' bank ratings using financial variables and allowing for intercept and slope heterogeneity. Our aim is to assess whether 'old' and 'new' EU countries are rated differently and to determine whether 'new' ones are assigned lower ratings, ceteris paribus, than 'old' ones. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270550
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Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations within the Eurozone : A Long-Memory Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2021
This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration methods to analyse the determinants of the amount of loans provided to non-financial corporations (NFCs) during the last three decades in four Eurozone countries, namely Germany, France, Italy and Spain. More specifically, ARFIMA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315007