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Enke, Benjamin - 2019

explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857912

Asymmetries in Risk Premia, Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Business Cycles

Görtz, Christoph - 2019

A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207

Investment Responses to Tax Policy Under Uncertainty

Guceri, Irem - 2019

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859606

The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty

Easaw, Joshy; Grimme, Christian - 2021

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562

Policy Competition, Imitation and Coordination Under Uncertainty

Hefeker, Carsten - 2022

The paper analyzes under what circumstances policymakers experiment with policies with uncertain outcomes, when they prefer to imitate policies initiated in other countries, and when they prefer to coordinate policies internationally. Policymakers have private costs of active policies and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289693

Global Uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2021

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246469

Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty : Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters

Piccillo, Giulia; Poonpakdee, Poramapa - 2022

Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309488

Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty

Gambetti, Luca; Tsoukalas, John D.; Korobilis, Dimitris; … - 2023

When agents’ information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348100

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Encourage Gambling? Evidence from the Chinese Welfare Lottery Market

Xu, Can; Steiner, Andreas; de Haan, Jakob - 2023

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a theoretical model, we hypothesize that EPU increases the demand for hope which raises the willingness to pay for lottery tickets, resulting in higher lottery sales. We estimate a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262034

Sectoral Uncertainty

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Tuzcuoglu, Kerem; Uzeda, Luis - 2022

We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243086

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