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The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
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Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822493
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Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860298
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Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892101
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Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865918
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The Interplay between Oil and Food Commodity Prices : Has it Changed Over Time?
Peersman, Gert - 2019
Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply--resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861447
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Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Returns in the BRICS-T Countries : A Time-Varying Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211113
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The Determinants of Crude Oil Prices : Evidence from ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Approaches
Salem, Leila Ben; Nouira, Ridha; Jeguirim, Khaled; … - 2022
This paper is an innovative attempt to empirically investigate the determinants of crude oil prices. The main objective is to distinguish between short- and long-term effects of some covariates on oil prices. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is applied to daily series spanning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242790
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Pandemic Meets Pollution : Poor Air Quality Increases Deaths by COVID-19
Isphording, Ingo E. - 2020
We study the impact of short-term exposure to ambient air pollution on the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Germany … patients (80+ years): higher levels of air pollution by one standard deviation 3 to 12 days after developing symptoms increase … deaths by 30 percent (males) and 35 percent (females) of the mean. In addition, air pollution raises the number of confirmed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824831
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Inequality and the Environment : The Economics of a Two-Headed Hydra
Drupp, Moritz A.; Kornek, Ulrike; Meya, Jasper; Sager, Lutz - 2021
Preserving environmental quality and addressing economic inequality both feature prominently in public discourse. Neither of these two issues can be fully understood in isolation, and policies aiming at one issue will increasingly have to consider interactions with the other. We synthesize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312074