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Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellaris, … - 2020
particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207913
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Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations
Ciani, Emanuele; Delavande, Adeline; Etheridge, Ben; … - 2019
Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals’ welfare. We examine how workers …’ expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We …-level representative survey data on expectations about future reforms and country-level data on online search. We find: (1) Expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141052
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Five facts about beliefs and portfolios
Giglio, Stefano; Maggiori, Matteo; Stroebel, Johannes; … - 2019
We administer a newly-designed survey to a large panel of retail investors who have substantial wealth invested in financial markets. The survey elicits beliefs that are crucial for macroeconomics and finance, and matches respondents with administrative data on their portfolio composition and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012052772
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Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
Giglio, Stefano; Maggiori, Matteo; Stroebel, Johannes; … - 2020
We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020 … expectations about long-run (10-year) economic and stock market outcomes remained largely unchanged, and, if anything, improved … February saw the largest decline in expectations, and sold the most equity. Those respondents who were the most pessimistic in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227674
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How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael - 2020
Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269580
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Attention and Selection Effects
Ambuehl, Sandro; Ockenfels, Axel; Stewart, Colin - 2018
Who participates in transactions when information about the consequences must be learned? We show theoretically that decision makers for whom acquiring and processing information is more costly respond more strongly to changes in incentive payments for participating and decide to participate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872148
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Electoral Competition with Rationally Inattentive Voters
Matejka, Filip; Tabellini, Guido - 2016
How do voters allocate costly attention to alternative political issues? And how does selective ignorance of voters interact with policy design by politicians? We address these questions by developing a model of electoral competition with rationally inattentive voters. Rational inattention...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451459
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Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement
Esady, Vania - 2019
This paper investigates the heterogeneity of monetary policy transmission under time-varying disagreement regimes using a threshold VAR. Empirically, I establish that during times of high disagreement, prices respond more sluggishly in response to monetary shocks. These stickier prices cause a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012179755
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Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Non-Neutrality of Money
Afrouzi, Hassan - 2020
How does competition affect information acquisition of firms and thus the response of inflation and output to monetary policy shocks? This paper addresses these questions in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with both dynamic rational inattention and oligopolistic competition. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207983
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Investment under Rational Inattention: Evidence from US Sectoral Data
Zorn, Peter - 2020
Macroeconomic and sector-specific shocks exert differential effects on investment in disaggregate sectoral data. The response to macroeconomic shocks is hump-shaped, just as in aggregate data. The effects of sectoral innovations decrease monotonically. A calibrated model of investment with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269506