as predictors. Third, we pool the forecasts in clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of …, and reducing tail risk. Using the same approach for return forecasts, however, does not lead to a consistent …

This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …

methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled …

The arbitrage pricing theory (APT) attributes differences in expected returns to exposure to systematic risk factors … the stochastic discount factor (mt) used to price securities within inter-temporal asset pricing models. We show that risk … errors in the statistical factor model with mt: Secondly we compare estimates of factor risk premia using portfolios with the …