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Testing
Bergbauer, Annika - 2018
School systems regularly use student assessments for accountability purposes. But, as highlighted by our conceptual model, different configurations of assessment usage generate performance-conducive incentives of different strengths for different stakeholders in different school environments. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910939
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Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
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International migration to Germany : estimation of a time-series model and inference in panel cointegration.
Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss; Trübswetter, … - 2003
In this paper we study the determinants of international migration to Germany, 1967-2000. The empirical literature on macro-economic migration functions usually explains migration flows by a set of explanatory variables such as the income differential, employment rates, and migrations stocks as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011439458
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Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy and Public Debt : Historical and Time Series Evidence for the Period 1850-2010
Burret, Heiko - 2013
cointegration and the estimation of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). While we cannot reject …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085753
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Noncausality and inflation persistence
Lanne, Markku - 2013
1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724820
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A noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters : an application to US inflation
Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani - 2013
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724822
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A dynamic panel data approach to the forecasting of the GDP of German Länder
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Siliverstovs, Boriss; … - 2007 - Corrected version
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GDP for each of the 16 German Länder (states) simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, such as pooled and fixed-effects models, we apply panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039490
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How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States
Lindenberg, Nannette - 2013
We evaluate the proposal for official dollarization in Costa Rica by applying a new approach to measure the business cycle comovements with the United States. While the literature often focuses on the correlation of shocks, we point out that the response of each country to the shocks is also an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095614
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2008
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276222
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The weekend effect : an exploitable anomaly in the Ukrainian stock market?
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; … - 2015
This paper provides some new empirical evidence on the weekend effect (one of the best known anomalies in financial markets) in Ukrainian futures prices. The analysis uses various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student's t-test, dummy variables, and fractional integration) to test for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488267