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Economic Determinants of Regional Trade Agreements Revisited Using Machine Learning

Blöthner, Simon; Larch, Mario - 2021

While traditional empirical models using determinants like size and trade costs are able to predict RTA formation reasonably well, we demonstrate that allowing for machine detected non-linear patterns helps to improve the predictive power of RTA formation substantially. We employ machine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216253

Macroeconomic Potentials of Transatlantic Free Trade : A High Resolution Perspective for Europe and the World

Felbermayr, Gabriel - 2014

since the Uruguay Round (1986 to 1994). It would create a free trade zone covering 45% of world GDP. However, critics … gains for Germany (3.5%), Europe (3.9%), and the world (1.6%), but that it could also harm third countries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044668

Economic Integration Agreements, Border Effects, and Distance Elasticities in the Gravity Equation

Bergstrand, Jeffrey H.; Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto V. - 2021

yields economically plausible and statistically significant estimates of the declining effect of “national borders” on world …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315671

A Tale of (Almost) 1001 Coefficients : Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the Eu-Turkey Customs Union

Larch, Mario - 2019

In view of the deferred start of negotiations for the modernization of the Customs Union between the EU and Turkey (CU-EUT), we look back and analyse the ex post trade consequences of the CU-EUT. Employing up-to-date econometric best practices for regional integration agreements, we quantify...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892084

Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium : A Structural Estimation Framework

Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto - 2022

We quantify the relationships between deep trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI). To this end, we focus on the effects of Deep Trade Agreements (DTAs), and we rely on a structural framework that simultaneously enables us to (i) estimate the direct impact of DTAs on FDI, (ii)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244020

On the Heterogeneous Trade and Welfare Effects of GATT/WTO Membership

Felbermayr, Gabriel - 2020

equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 … countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO membership on trade among member counties is … general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822504

Optimal Tariffs, Retaliation and the Welfare Loss from Tariff Wars in the Melitz Model

Felbermayr, Gabriel - 2011

-cooperative tariff policies. These results suggest that post WWII trends have increased the relative merits of the WTO …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124179

Trade and Investment in the Global Economy

Anderson, James E. - 2017

actual aggregate cross-section data for 89 countries in 2011 to a hypothetical world without FDI. The gains from FDI amount … to 9% of world's welfare and to 11% of world's trade, unevenly distributed among winners and losers. Net exports of FDI …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947623

Do Natural Resources Depress Income Per Capita?

Arezki, Rabah - 2010

Most evidence for the resource curse comes from cross-country growth regressions suffers from a bias originating from the high and ever-evolving volatility in commodity prices. This paper addresses these issues by providing new cross-country empirical evidence for the effect of resources in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143232

Roman Transport Network Connectivity and Economic Integration

Flückiger, Matthias - 2019

We show that the creation of the first integrated pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that interregional trade was strongly influenced by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866077