We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...

It is well-known that the estimated GARCH dynamics exhibit common patterns. Starting from this fact the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model is extended by allowing for a clustering structure of the univariate GARCH parameters. The model can be estimated in two steps, the first devoted to...

The estimation of multivariate GARCH time series models is a difficult task mainly due to the excessive parametrization exhibited by the problem, usually referred to as the “curse of dimensionality”. For the VEC family, the number of parameters involved in the model grows as a polynomial of...

When the likelihood functions are either unavailable analytically or are computationally cumbersome to evaluate, it is impossible to implement conventional Bayesian model choice methods. Instead, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or the likelihood-free method can be used in order to avoid...

The Reversible Jump algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian estimation and model selection. A generalized multiple-try version of this algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is based on drawing several proposals at each step and randomly choosing...

In the RC association model for a two-way contingency table, it is often natural to impose order constraints on the score parameters of the row and column variables. In this article, a simple and efficient Bayesian model selection procedure is proposed that simultaneously compares all possible...

Error density estimation in a nonparametric functional regression model with functional predictor and scalar response is considered. The unknown error density is approximated by a mixture of Gaussian densities with means being the individual residuals, and variance as a constant parameter. This...

Some baseline patient factors, such as biomarkers, are useful in predicting patients’ responses to a new therapy. Identification of such factors is important in enhancing treatment outcomes, avoiding potentially toxic therapy that is destined to fail and improving the cost-effectiveness of...

A powerful and flexible method for fitting dynamic models to missing and censored data is to use the Bayesian paradigm via data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC). This samples from the joint posterior for the parameters and missing data, but requires high memory overheads for...

Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary...