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We present the estimated large-scale three-region DSGE model GEAR picturing Germany, the Euro Area and the Rest of the world. Compared to existing models of this type, GEAR incorporates a comprehensive fiscal block, involuntary unemployment and a complex international structure. We use the model...
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Most EU member states will adopt fiscal rules that refer to cyclically-adjusted borrowing limits. Under the standard …-time output gaps used to calculate cyclical components balance over time. We analyse real-time output gaps for EU-15 countries … over the 1996-2011 period as estimated by the EU, the IMF and the OECD. Compared to each institution’s final estimate, we …
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The paper analyses theoretically what role fiscal councils could play and surveys empirically the activities of existing councils. Case studies of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility are done. It is concluded that fiscal councils should be advisory,...
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This paper presents a review of the most significant fiscal rules policymakers can choose from. The insights from this review are then applied to the current budgetary situation of the European Union. In the European Union, the supranational Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) should provide the...
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