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We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy, using a global vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994181
This paper explores time variation in the dynamic effects of technology shocks on U.S. output, prices, interest rates as well as real and nominal wages. The results indicate considerable time variation in U.S. wage dynamics that can be linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131601
Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization activities that are orthogonal to real economy and monetary policy innovations account for more than 30 percent of U.S. output variation. The dynamic effects, however, depend on the type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055428
The Pessimists and the Optimists disagree whether the US external deficits and the associated buildup of US net foreign liabilities are problems that require urgent attention. A warning signal should be that the debt ratio deviates significantly from the optimal ratio. The optimal debt ratio or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317398
Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003739948
We consider a model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage bargaining where hours worked are negotiated every period. The workers' bargaining power in the hours negotiation affects both unemployment volatility and inflation persistence. The closer to zero this parameter, (i) the more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824877
This paper is concerned with the apparent change in the U.S. oil price-macroeconomy relationship. It is investigated to what extent this change can be accounted for by the large oil price surges witnessed in the 1970s. The innovative approach of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158142
This study empirically examines the fragility of five major Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) to economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of US and EU, and oil prices in different state of the economies. To investigate these dynamics, we use the relative tail dependence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226632
fractional integration and fractional cointegration techniques. These methods are more general and have higher power than the … both the S&P 500 Index and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index. Also, fractional cointegration appears to hold at least for the … diverging growth and monetary policy. Establishing whether the degree of cointegration has changed over time is important since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013497
period 1966-2009 using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The degree of integration and non-linearity of … both series are found to vary considerably across states, whilst the fractional cointegration analysis suggests that a long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019858