Model uncertainty remains a persistent concern when exploring the drivers of civil conflict and civil war. Considering …-sectional and panel data, three robust results emerge. First, past conflict constitutes the most powerful predictor of current … conflict: path dependency matters. Second, larger shares of Jewish, Muslim, or Christian citizens are associated with increased …

open civil conflict against the government. Our model implies that terrorism emerges if constraints on the ruling executive … group are intermediate and rents are sizeable, whereas conflict looms under poor executive constraints. Analyzing annual … when considering the incidence and onset of terrorism and conflict. The corresponding magnitudes are economically sizeable …

When do opposition groups decide to mount a terrorism campaign and when do they enter an open civil conflict against … the ruling government? This paper models an opposition group's choice between peace, terrorism, and open conflict …. Terrorism emerges if executive constraints are intermediate and rents are sizeable. Open conflict is predicted to emerge under …

We model simultaneous inter and within identity-group conflict in two territories connected by cross-territorial spill … higher efficiency of a group in inter-group conflict. We find that inter-group and total conflict move together within a … territory, while within-group conflict and output move in the opposite direction. A unilateral increase in cross-border spill …

contest the extent of institutional ethnic bias. The contest yields the per-period relative influence over institutions, which … partly spills over into the next period, by affecting relative conflict efficiency. Our model generates non …-monotone evolution of both conflict and distribution. Results suggest that external interventions, when effective in reducing current …

In many instances of potential violent or non-violent conflict the future strategic positions of adversaries are very … different when there is open conflict than when there is settlement. In such environments we show that, as the future becomes … more important, open conflict becomes more likely than settlement. We demonstrate the theoretical robustness of this …

-colonial autocratic institutions within ethnic groups and the emergence of autocratic institutions across countries. Diversity has … amplified the importance of institutions in mitigating the adverse effects of non-cohesiveness on productivity, while … contributing to the scope for domination, leading to the formation of institutions of the autocratic type. …

We build a model of conflict in which two groups contest a resource and must decide on the optimal allocation of labor … involved in the conflict by transferring financial resources to its origin country. We find that the diaspora influences the … conflict equilibrium, the two groups of residents prefer to negotiate a peaceful settlement if there exists a sharing rule that …

systematically more likely to slip into civil conflict and civil war. Intuitively, political preferences and beliefs of highly … polarization and test its predictive power in explaining the likelihood of civil conflict and civil war, analyzing 146 countries … educational polarization is associated with a 4.6 and 3.8 percentage point rise in the chances of civil conflict and civil war …