We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...

We build on the recent literature studying the effects of uncertainty on trade by introducing a model that combines a reduced form vector autoregression for the growth rates of exports, foreign income, and the real exchange rate (RER), with a multivariate GARCH model. Up to 12 lags of several...

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential...

This paper identifies the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate, in which monetary policy follows a Taylor-rule interest rate reaction function. The exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables,...

This paper examines the short-term dynamics, macroeconomic sensitivities, and longer-term trends in the variances and covariances of national equity market index daily returns for eleven countries in the Euro currency zone. We modify Colacito, Engle and Ghysel's Mixed Data Sampling Dynamic...

This paper develops a model of exchange rate dynamics that takes into account positions in foreign and domestic equities in addition to “standard” short-term riskless securities. The modeling of cross-country stock holdings is motivated by evidence that a large and ever-increasing proportion...

This paper investigates the dynamics of the real exchange rate and relative output among the US and five of its top six trading partners since the collapse of Bretton Woods. It employs long-run restrictions to identify the usual suspect macroeconomic shocks and their relative importance for...

This paper proposes the Fixed Effects Filtered (FEF) and Fixed Effects Filtered instrumental variable (FEF-IV) estimators for estimation and inference in the case of time-invariant effects in static panel data models when N is large and T is fixed. It is shown that the FEF and FEF-IV estimators...

We employ a wavelet approach and conduct a time-frequency analysis of dynamic correlations between pairs of key traded assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily data. We show that heterogeneity in correlations...

This paper explores the properties of pre-test strategies in estimating a linear Cliff-Ord-type spatial model when the researcher is unsure about the nature of the spatial dependence. More specifically, the paper explores the finite sample properties of the pre-test estimators introduced in...