open civil conflict against the government. Our model implies that terrorism emerges if constraints on the ruling executive … group are intermediate and rents are sizeable, whereas conflict looms under poor executive constraints. Analyzing annual … when considering the incidence and onset of terrorism and conflict. The corresponding magnitudes are economically sizeable …

This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the … correlates of conflict to minimize the prediction loss function, and (2) an algorithm that chooses a set of thresholds for the … same variables, together with the number of breaches of thresholds that constitute a prediction of conflict, that minimize …

subnational regions). Conflict is measured by the incidence of civil war (UCDP/PRIO data) and a risk measure of internal conflict … well as OLS fixed effects panel regressions. I find that regional inequalities increase the risk of internal conflict …

This paper reviews the economics approach to conflict and national borders. The paper (a) provides a summary of ideas …

We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 … countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls increase the probability of conflict in onshore-rich countries …, while they decrease this probability in offshore-rich countries. We use a simple model of conflict to illustrate how these …

We combine original geo-referenced data on mining extraction of 15 minerals with information on conflict events at … positive impact of mining on conflict at the local level. Quantitatively, the historical rise in prices (commodity super …