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Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Chudik, Alexander - 2015

This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019040

The Growth Effect of Democracy : Is It Heterogenous and How Can it Be Estimated?

Persson, Torsten; Tabellini, Guido - 2021

We estimate the effect of political regime transitions on growth with semi-parametric methods, combining difference in differences with matching, that have not been used in macroeconomic settings. Our semi-parametric estimates suggest that previous parametric estimates may have seriously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317020

Dissecting the PPP Puzzle : The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon S.; Bergman, U. Michael - 2021

The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price adjustment, is shown to be the key engine governing the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319983

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves

Cheung, Yin-Wong - 2013

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095899

An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021

-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy’s steady state growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315924

Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth: A comparison of linear and nonlinear (forecasting) models

Herwartz, Helmut; Weber, Henning - 2007

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263693

A note on the model selection risk for ANOVA based adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure

Blaskowitz, Oliver J.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2008

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271837

On economic evaluation of directional forecasts

Blaskowitz, Oliver J.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2009

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271901