Forecasts from various experts are often used in macroeconomic forecasting models. Usually the focus is on the mean or median of the survey data. In the present study we adopt a different perspective on the survey data as we examine the predictive power of disagreement amongst forecasters. The...

We propose a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of the weights belonging to a set of Bayesian predictive densities which have been obtained from alternative models. Several specifications of multivariate time-varying weights are...

We summarize the general combination approach by Billio et al. [2010]. In the combination model the weights follow logistic auto-regressive processes, change over time and their dynamics are possible driven by the past forecasting performances of the predictive densities. For illustrative...

This paper studies the assignment of decision makers to two committees that make decisions by a simple majority rule. There is an even number of decision makers at each of various skill levels and each committee has an odd number of members. Surprisingly, even with the symmetric assumptions in...

Public Choice is the merger between political science and economics. In the introductory sections of this survey it is investigated what we can expect from the logic of public choice. How far is it able to produce consistent results? Is public choice consistent with liberty? What can be done to...

Collective contests are examined permitting heterogeneity of stakes within every competing group. Our first concern is whether unequal distribution of stakes in a group can enhance its win probability. Our second concern is whether a large stake in a group can be individually disadvantageous. We...

We characterize the dynamic properties of Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) processes by identifying regions of the parameter space that imply stationarity and ergodicity. We show how these regions are affected by the choice of parameterization and scaling, which are key features of GAS...

Governments often provide their citizens with goods and services that are also supplied in markets: education, housing, nutritional assistance, etc. We analyze the political economy of the public provision of private goods when individuals care about their social image. We show that image...

In this chapter I provide an overview of the political economy of taxation in democratic states by considering the three most important issues in the field: (1) the evolution of the power to tax in (what are now) the mature constitutional democracies; (2) the nature and determinants of modern...