beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since confict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over … process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases …

treatments to disentangle the preference for AA stemming from i) perceived gender differences in productivity, ii) beliefs about …, despite successfully altering beliefs about expected productivity differences. Our results suggest that AA choice reflects a …

different beliefs about how policy choices will map into future economic outcomes. We show that when the incumbent party can …-serving behavior by political parties, but rather stems from their differing beliefs about the consequences of their actions. …