We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...

Although policymakers and practitioners are particularly interested in DSGE models, these are typically too stylized to be applied directly to the data and often yield weak prediction re- sults. Very recently, hybrid DSGE models have become popular for dealing with some of the model...

Micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models appear to be particularly suited for evaluating the consequences of alternative macroeconomic policies. Recently, increasing efforts have been undertaken by policymakers to use these models for forecasting, although this proved...

This article investigates the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in an international setting. We test a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) accounting for the deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) as well as temporal...

Over recent years, several emerging market regions have actively taken part in globalisation movements and world market integration. However, the financial integration processes appear to vary over time, and differ considerably from one region to another. This paper investigates intraregional...

We estimate and test the conditional version of an international capital asset pricing model using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process and the multivariate nonlinear least squares method. Since our approaches are fully parametric, we can recover a

This paper employs a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to investigate the determinants of regional integration of stock markets in the Latin America over the period 1996-2008. This model allows for three sources of time-varying risks: common regional...

In ation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policymaking - especially in an in ation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables,e.g. such as alternative...

Forecasting the density of returns is useful for many purposes in finance, such as risk manage- ment activities, portfolio choice or derivative security pricing. Existing methods to forecast the den- sity of returns either use prices of the asset of interest or option prices on this same asset....