open civil conflict against the government. Our model implies that terrorism emerges if constraints on the ruling executive … group are intermediate and rents are sizeable, whereas conflict looms under poor executive constraints. Analyzing annual … when considering the incidence and onset of terrorism and conflict. The corresponding magnitudes are economically sizeable …

In many instances of potential violent or non-violent conflict the future strategic positions of adversaries are very … different when there is open conflict than when there is settlement. In such environments we show that, as the future becomes … more important, open conflict becomes more likely than settlement. We demonstrate the theoretical robustness of this …

creates continuous and dichotomous indices. We use the SVM indices to investigate the effect of democratic institutions on …

of the impact of conflict point to negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth of -12 percent on average over 2011 …-18, resulting in a GDP contraction to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers … stable resolution of the conflict is achieved …

. Our results hold true when using indicators capturing the quality of economic institutions in lieu of indicators of … political institutions …

systematically more likely to slip into civil conflict and civil war. Intuitively, political preferences and beliefs of highly … polarization and test its predictive power in explaining the likelihood of civil conflict and civil war, analyzing 146 countries … educational polarization is associated with a 4.6 and 3.8 percentage point rise in the chances of civil conflict and civil war …

economic development, notably institutions and geography. This paper sheds a different light on these determinants. We use … spatial econometrics to analyse the importance of the geography of institutions. We show that it is not only absolute … for a country's gdp per capita. Apart from a country's own institutions, institutions in neighboring countries turn out to …

the historical determinants of institutions with the sizeable direct impact of geographic endowments on development …