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Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market Crash

Pesaran, Bahram - 2013

Modelling of conditional volatilities and correlations across asset returns is an integral part of portfolio decision making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations across markets, a trend which has been accentuated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094817

The Impact of Fiscal Rules on Public Finances : Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area

Marneffe, Wim - 2011

This paper presents a review of the most significant fiscal rules policymakers can choose from. The insights from this review are then applied to the current budgetary situation of the European Union. In the European Union, the supranational Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) should provide the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131350

Estimating the Effects of Coordinated Fiscal Actions in the Euro Area

Hebous, Shafik - 2012

We estimate spillover effects of a fiscal shock in one member country in the euro area on outputs of the rest of the members, using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model. We compare the effects of a domestic fiscal shock with those of a similar size area-wide shock expressed as a weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101197

The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession : Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis

Schnabl, Gunther - 2013

The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081055

The Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area During the Global Financial Crisis

Hristov, Nikolay - 2013

This paper uses panel vector autoregressive models and simulations of an estimated DSGE model to explore the reaction of Euro–area banks to the global financial crisis. We focus on their interest–rate setting behavior in response to standard macroeconomic shocks. Our main empirical finding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089850

Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone : An Empirical Test

De Grauwe, Paul - 2013

We test the hypothesis that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self … countries in the Eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space … argue that this can drive member countries of the Eurozone into bad equilibria. We also find evidence that after years of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090949

Financial Contagion and the European Debt Crisis

Missio, Sebastian - 2013

Since the beginning of 2010, the Euro Area faces a severe sovereign debt crisis, now generally known as the Euro Crisis. While the Euro Crisis has its origin in Greece, problems have now spread to several other European countries as well. Dynamic conditional correlation models (DCC) are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092476

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2012

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112600

Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area

Staehr, Karsten - 2008

This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future … counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from … the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773620

Rent-Seeking Competition from State Coffers : A Calibrated DSGE Model of the Euro Area

Angelopoulos, Konstantinos - 2006

This paper incorporates an uncoordinated struggle for extra fiscal favors into an otherwise standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. This reflects the popular belief that interest groups compete for privileged transfers and tax treatment at the expense of the general public...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012781542