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Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?

Baumeister, Christiane - 2017

The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014-16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960111

Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information : Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks: Comment

Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2021

Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315410

Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations : Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us

Baumeister, Christiane - 2016

It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998728

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets : Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

Kilian, Lutz - 2018

Shocks to the demand for housing that originate in one region may seem important only for that regional housing market. We provide evidence that such shocks can also affect housing markets in other regions. Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916565

Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

Baumeister, Christiane - 2017

It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963589

How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets

Kilian, Lutz - 2017

Starting in late 2008, the U.S. production of tight oil surged, causing a renaissance in the U.S. oil sector that few industry analysts had anticipated. This tight oil boom reduced the dependence of the United States on petroleum imports and allowed it to become a major exporter of gasoline and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960095

The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices

Kilian, Lutz - 2021

This article examines how the shale oil revolution has shaped the evolution of U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices. It puts the evolution of shale oil production into historical perspective, highlights uncertainties about future shale oil production, and cautions against the view that the U.S....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315512

A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil

Baumeister, Christiane - 2016

has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996209

Inside the Crystal Ball : New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Baumeister, Christiane - 2016

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996647

Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil Since June 2014

Baumeister, Christiane - 2016

positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations … expected oil production that occurred prior to July 2014. The remaining oil price decline is accounted for by a shock to oil … price expectations in July 2014 that lowered the demand for oil inventories and a shock to the demand for oil associated …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996804