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Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017

belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets …-valued), and another regarding his/her expectations of the future price of that asset. Responses to these two questions are then … between the agents expectations of price changes and their asset valuation. Double question surveys on equity, gold and house …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963776

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639

Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-Period Forecasting Problems

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756285