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Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio - 2014

The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054500

Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market Crash

Pesaran, Bahram - 2013

making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094817

Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

Academic macroeconomics and the research department of central banks have come to be dominated by Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on micro-foundations of optimising representative agents with rational expectations. We argue that the dominance of this particular sort...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125067

An Exponential Class of Dynamic Binary Choice Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects

Al-Sadoon, Majid - 2013

This paper develops a model for dynamic binary choice panel data that allows for unobserved heterogeneity to be arbitrarily correlated with covariates. The model is of the exponential type. We derive moment conditions that enable us to eliminate the unobserved heterogeneity term and at the same...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089182

Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017

This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963776

Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015

This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038262

Optimality and Diversifiability of Mean Variance and Arbitrage Pricing Portfolios

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009

This paper investigates the limit properties of mean-variance (mv) and arbitrage pricing (ap) trading strategies using a general dynamic factor model, as the number of assets diverge to infinity. It extends the results obtained in the literature for the exact pricing case to two other cases of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153425

Testing for Alpha in Linear Factor Pricing Models with a Large Number of Securities

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017

This paper proposes a novel test of zero pricing errors for the linear factor pricing model when the number of securities, N, can be large relative to the time dimension, T, of the return series. The test is based on Student t tests of individual securities and has a number of advantages over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955752

Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014

This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050473

A Multiple Testing Approach to the Regularisation of Large Sample Correlation Markets

Bailey, Natalia - 2014

This paper proposes a novel regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices, which makes use of insights from the multiple testing literature. The method tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations and sets to zero those elements that are not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051612