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The Cross-Section of Firms Over the Business Cycle : New Facts and a DSGE Exploration

Bachmann, Rudi - 2009

Using a German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The cross-sectional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155672

How Strongly Did the 2007/08 Oil Price Hike Contribute to the Subsequent Recession?

Carstensen, Kai - 2011

What were the economic consequences of the 2007/08 oil price hike for Germany? In this paper we use a structural vector autoregressive model to study the effects of oil price changes driven by different supply and demand shocks on the German economy. We find that a higher oil bill always stifles...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129250

Firm-Specific Productivity Risk Over the Business Cycle : Facts and Aggregate Implications

Bachmann, Ruediger - 2009

Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneous-firm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154684

Systematic Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Effects of Shifts in Loan-to-Value Ratios

Bachmann, Ruediger - 2017

What are the macroeconomic consequences of changing aggregate lending standards in residential mortgage markets, as measured by loan-to-value (LTV) ratios? In a structural VAR, GDP and business investment increase following an expansionary LTV shock. Residential investment, by contrast, falls, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955193

Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and Their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations

Peersman, Gert - 2014

type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055428

Does the Euro-Zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation

Flaig, Gebhard; Wollmershaeuser, Timo - 2021

This paper presents a stress indicator for the eurozone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP … and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country's actual short … that stress in the eurozone is mainly due to different trend growth rates and that for most of the Euro-zone countries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317182

The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession : Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis

Schnabl, Gunther - 2013

The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the … characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary … well as gradual real income losses, the economic policy implication for Japan and Europe is the timely exit from the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081055

Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows : Evidence from Latin America

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013

American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089557

Business Cycle Effects of Credit and Technology Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle dynamics, where firms rely on banks and households for capital financing. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm specific technology...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119521

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Stylized DSGE Model with Disequilibrium Dynamics

Van Aarle, Bas - 2012

This study develops a stylised DSGE model, that departs in one aspect: it replaces the general equilibrium approach by disequilibrium economics. In this way, richer macroeconomic adjustment dynamics result, as it is not necessary to assume that goods and labour markets continuously clear. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096548