probability of macroeconomic catastrophes à la Barro (2006), and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth à la …

occupational pension wealth observed in Switzerland …

data properties. In particular, it is shown that changes in the volatility of the shocks can be used for identification …

estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

for the years 1970-2004, we document how the volatility of hours worked and of wages of workers at different skill levels … volatility of employment, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers. A higher share of low-skilled employment has a …

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy … 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market … activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by …