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Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending
Englmaier, Florian - 2013
We provide evidence that German savings banks – where local politicians are by law involved in their management – systematically adjust lending policies in response to local electoral cycles. The different timing of county elections across states and the existence of a control group of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075619
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Demographic Change and Bank Profitability - Empirical Evidence from German Savings Banks
Berlemann, Michael - 2013
, allows us estimating the socio-demographic determinants of retail profitability. Using a simulation model, we are able to … predict the development of bank profitability due to demographic shifts up to 2025. One of the main findings is that the … the population reduces the customer base, ageing per se increases profitability as older customers typically generate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095185
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Profit Shifting and Investment Effects : The Implications of Zero-Taxable Profits
Koethenbuerger, Marko - 2018
Recent empirical research documents a tendency of affiliates of multinational enterprises to bunch around zero reported profit. Setting up a model that allows for profitable and loss-making affiliates of multinationals, we show that profit shifting to a low-tax country as well as a loss-related,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921411
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Mergers and Partial Ownership
Foros, Øystein - 2010
In this paper we compare the profitability of a merger to the profitability of a partial ownership arrangement and find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148773
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Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa - 2013
to the fit. Using data for the United States, the euro area and Germany, we assess the performance of boosting when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278
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Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle
Carstensen, Kai - 2017
for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955198
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Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts : Evidence from the German States
Kauder, Bjoern - 2017
We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The results do not show that electoral motives influenced fiscal forecasts in West German states. By contrast, East German state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962666
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Boosting and Regional Economic Forecasting : The Case of Germany
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2021
German states (the Free State of Saxony and Baden-Wuerttemberg) and Eastern Germany for the period from 1997 to 2013, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315480
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How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies
Snowberg, Erik - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125691
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Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
Snowberg, Erik - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103608