Similar Search Results

Forecasting the Brent Oil Price : Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance

Manescu, Cristiana - 2017

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964616

Assets Returns Volatility and Investment Horizon : The French Case

Bec, Frédérique - 2009

This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160520

Tariffs, Trade and Productivity : A Quantitative Evaluation of Heterogeneous Firm Models

Breinlich, Holger - 2013

We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077449

Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance : Evidence of Skill?

MacDonald, Ronald - 2013

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095998

How Much Do Educational Outcomes Matter in OECD Countries?

Hanushek, Eric Alan; Woessmann, Ludger - 2021

Existing growth research provides little explanation for the very large differences in long-run growth performance across OECD countries. We show that cognitive skills can account for growth differences within the OECD, whereas a range of economic institutions and quantitative measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316138

Demographic Change and Public Sector Budgets in a Federal System

Hofmann, Michael; Kempkes, Gerhard; Seitz, Helmut - 2021

This paper examines the effects of demographic change on public finances in a federal system. We develop a simple methodical procedure to measure the effect of demographic changes on public revenues and expenditures. We apply our method to the local, state and federal government sector as well...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316520

Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil Since June 2014

Baumeister, Christiane - 2016

Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996804

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market : Time-Series Evidence

Neuhierl, Andreas - 2017

with the slope factor. Slope predicts changes in future interest rates and forecast revisions of professional forecasters …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965931

Real-Time State-Space Method for Computing Smoothed Estimates for Future Revisions of U.S. Monthly Chained CPI

Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016

Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989031

Time-Dependency in Producers' Price Adjustments : Evidence from Micro Panal Data

Nilsen, Øivind Anti - 2018

Existing micro evidence of firms' price changes tends to show a downward sloping hazard rate – the longer the price of a product has remained the same, the less likely it is that the price will change. Using a panel of Norwegian plant- and product-specific prices, we also find a downward...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912662