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Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities
Kilian, Lutz - 2018
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930077
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Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen - 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997239
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The Greek Crisis : Causes and Consequences
Garcia Pascual, Antonio I. - 2011
Greece has reached a point where, under any plausible macroeconomic scenario, public debt will continue growing faster than GDP. Fiscal consolidation alone cannot close the solvency gap. A substantial reduction in the stock of debt is needed. Even post-debt restructuring, there is no guarantee...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117780
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Quality and the Great Trade Collapse
Chen, Natalie - 2015
We explore whether the global financial crisis has had heterogeneous effects on traded goods differentiated by quality. Combining a dataset of Argentinean firm-level destination-specific wine exports with quality ratings, we show that higher quality exports grew faster before the crisis, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010482
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Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession
Born, Alexandra - 2018
large parts of the world. In this paper we explore the financial and the trade channel in a unified framework and quantify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920861
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Systemic Crisis and Growth Revisited : Has the Global Financial Crisis Marked a New Era?
Steinkamp, Sven - 2018
Occasional crises have been shown to be part of growth enhancing mechanism (see Rancière, Tornell and Westermann, 2008). In this paper, we document that neither the stereotypical case study of India vs. Thailand, nor the benchmark growth-regression in this earlier research support this result...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914607
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The Crisis in the Foreign Exchange Market
Melvin, Michael - 2013
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 had major implications for the foreign exchange market. We review events and implications for exchange rates, volatility, returns to currency investing, and transaction costs. This “blow-by-blow” narrative is intended to be a resource for researchers seeking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095774
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Shooting on a Moving Target : Explaining European Bank Rates during the Interwar Period
Wandschneider, Kirsten - 2013
This paper describes the monetary policy response of countries during the inter-war period. How did central banks react to the Great Depression? How did countries balance the externals demands of the gold standard with domestic policy pressures? What was the optimal level of international policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095799
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Uncertainty and Economic Activity : A Multi-Country Perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio - 2018
for by the real common factor, which is proportional to world growth in our empirical model and linked to the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920871
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Role of Production Networks in Sustaining and Rebalancing Asia's Growth
Thorbecke, Willem - 2012
, the ability of the rest of the world to absorb Asia's exports has decreased. Export production in some Asian countries has … economic growth in East Asia. Developed Asia produces technology-intensive intermediate goods and capital goods and ships them … production networks in Asia. It then discusses how developing Asian countries could leverage production networks to facilitate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101411