Showing 91 - 100 of 1,866
In this paper, we examine the role of global and domestic credit supply shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations for Emerging Markets. For this purpose, we impose a set of zero and sign restrictions within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model. Quarterly data from South Africa and G-7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080004
In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for the analysis of macro series that includes both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles in addition to deterministic terms such as linear and non-linear trends. We examine four US macro series, namely annual and quarterly real GDP and GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930692
This paper analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1-2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158457
Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059505
Mainstream economic research regards private debt as a determinant of GDP growth in the longrun. Levine (2005) surveys in details this branch of literature and explains the channels by which debt fuels growth. In this paper we switch the focus from the long to the short-run and study whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315475
techniques are applied to monthly inflation series of 21 OECD countries and it is found that average forecasting methods in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
indices and reveal the existence of a pro-rich inflation in Europe. Particularly, over the period 2001-15, the consumption … those of the richest decile. We find that ignoring the differential inflation across the distribution underestimates the … large enough to alter the inequality ranking of numerous countries. The average inflation effect we detect is almost as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914674
different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (1) the optimal steady …-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (2) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by … estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the U.S. economy. In the year 1977, the optimal inflation rate stood at 1 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916153
consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019404
This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special … Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and … regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel's Law may hold during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094566