Showing 1 - 10 of 497
, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004 … results: First, both pro- and countercyclical fiscal policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks … that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316549
According to empirical studies, the life cycle of labor supply volatility exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This may lead to … the conclusion that demographic change induces a drop in output volatility. We present an overlapping generations model … that replicates the empirically observed pattern and study the impact of demographic transition on output volatility. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059476
. We develop a multi-country version of the Lucas tree model with time-varying volatility and show that in addition to … the cross country variations of realized volatility. Using this theoretical insight, two common factors, a ‘real' and a …-specific innovations to real GDP growth and realized stock market volatility. We then quantify the absolute and the relative importance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920871
;Great Moderationquot; can be found in firm level data as well remains disputed. We study the evolution of firm level output volatility … trends in unconditional firm level and aggregated output volatility in Germany are similar. There has been a long …-run downward trend, which was interrupted by the unification period. Second, the conditional, idiosyncratic firm level volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753581
financial volatility. Uncertainty shocks hitting in recessions are found to trigger a more abrupt drop and a faster recovery in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947523
We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the ZeroLower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947624
describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical … evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316234
Fiscal positions of African countries have improved significantly during the past decade. Higher economic growth, better terms of trade, improved donor support notably through debt relief and better control of expenditure contributed to this improvement. But at the same time government revenue...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072104
Using data on Chinese large-scale overseas investment and project contracts by sector, we analyze whether Chinese outward activity (COA) before the crisis worsened or alleviated the contractionary phases in developing countries. We find that, on average, COA did not increase vulnerability to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997245
demands of public spending, this paper analyzes the tradeoff between growth and volatility of tax revenues in Latin America …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130748