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Shooting on a Moving Target: Eyplaining European Bank Rates during the Interwar Period
Wandschneider, Kirsten; Wolf, Nikolaus - CESifo - 2009
This paper describes the monetary policy response of countries during the inter-war period. How did central banks react to the Great Depression? How did countries balance the externals demands of the gold standard with domestic policy pressures? What was the optimal level of international policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005034638
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Europe's Great Depression - Coordination Failure after the First World War
Wolf, Nikolaus - CESifo - 2010
In this paper I survey and reinterpret the extensive literature on Europe's Great Depression. I argue that Europe could not exploit her vast economic potential after 1918, because the war had not yet come to an end - indeed it did not end before 1945. Both, domestic and international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671703
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Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy : Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks Been Procyclical in the Long-Run?
Piluso, Giandomenico - 2008
This paper analyses the relations between the banking system fluctuations, on one hand, and taxation and public spending, on the other one, using a VECM methodology. We find some evidence of prociclicality of fiscal policy using variables such as government spending, taxes, and primary surplus....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012769303
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Banking Crises and Boom-Bust Dynamics : Evidence for Italy (1861-2016)
Bartoletto, Silvana - 2018
The financial crises of 2007-2008 and the subsequent worldwide recession show the importance of exploring the correlation between financial and real crises. Starting from our new estimation of the Italian business cycle (Bartoletto et al., 2017), we analyze the linkage between banking crises and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917986
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Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?
Piluso, Giandomenico; Ricciuti, Roberto - CESifo - 2008
This paper analyses the relations between the banking system fluctuations, on one hand, and taxation and public spending, on the other one, using a VECM methodology. We find some evidence of prociclicality of fiscal policy using variables such as government spending, taxes, and primary surplus....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766249
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Was Germany ever United? Evidence from Intra- and International Trade 1885-1933
Wolf, Nikolaus - 2013
When did Germany become economically integrated? Within the framework of a gravity model, based on a new data set of … about 40,000 observations on trade flows within and across the borders of Germany over the period 1885 - 1933, I explore the … internal fragmentation resulted from cultural heterogeneity, from administrative borders within Germany, and from geographical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753424
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Was Germany ever United? Evidence from Intra- and International Trade 1885 - 1933
Wolf, Nikolaus - CESifo - 2008
When did Germany become economically integrated? Within the framework of a gravity model, based on a new data set of … about 40,000 observations on trade flows within and across the borders of Germany over the period 1885 – 1933, I explore the … internal fragmentation resulted from cultural heterogeneity, from administrative borders within Germany, and from geographical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765846
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Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations
Enders, Zeno - 2018
We assess whether “undue optimism” (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity, which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity that do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938129
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Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy
De Grauwe, Paul - 2013
We develop a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents use simple but biased rules to forecast future output and inflation. This model generates endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (quot;Animal Spiritsquot;) that are generated by the correlation of biased beliefs. We contrast the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753435
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Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles
Azariadis, Costas; Kaas, Leo; Wen, Yi - CESifo - 2015
In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. In this paper we develop a tractable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242155