Showing 1 - 10 of 17
This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596582
This study investigates exchange rate movements in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) and in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM-II). On the basis of the variant of the target zone model proposed by Bartolini and Prati (1999) and Bessec (2003), we set up a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405889
deviations from long-term equilibrium are small. In contrast, nonlinear models withmore elaborate mean-reverting components … dominate at longer horizons especially whendeviations from long-term equilibrium are large. The results also suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405901
deviation between exchange rate and fundamentals is large. Conversely, when the exchange rate is close to its equilibrium value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406011
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024363
the data set of Sala-i-Martin, we use the least median of squares (LMS) estimator to identify outliers. As LMS is not … without outliers hardly reveals any additional information. Variables that are insignificant according to the RLS method are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094199
, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008853850
We show that essentially every communication equilibrium of any finite Bayesian game with two players can be … implemented as a strategic form correlated equilibrium of an extended game, in which before choosing actions as in the Bayesian … game, the players engage in a possibly infinitely long (but in equilibrium almost surely finite), direct, cheap talk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128960
We study a classic mechanism design problem: How to organize trade between two privately informed parties. We characterize an optimal mechanism under selfish preferences and present experimental evidence that, under such a mechanism, a non-negligible fraction of individuals deviates from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055380
and resulting academic achievement in an estimable equilibrium framework. We develop a specification test that exploits … the equilibrium nature of social interactions and use it to show that novel study propensity measures mitigate econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921423