to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing … booms and recessions to check whether a specific indicator that appears to be a good choice on average is also preferable in …

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities’ reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one … forecasting a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we analyse to what extent its forecasting accuracy depends on the …