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Explaining Output Volatility: The Case of Taxation
Posch, Olaf - CESifo - 2009
This paper presents empirical evidence against the popular perception that macro volatility is exogenous. We obtain tax effects on macro aggregates in the stochastic neoclassical model. Taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without affecting the first moment....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013943
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Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks
Van Robays, Ine - 2014
This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil demand and supply shocks. The results show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065379
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Firm-Specific Productivity Risk Over the Business Cycle : Facts and Aggregate Implications
Bachmann, Ruediger - 2009
Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneous-firm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154684
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Uncertainty and Economic Activity
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio - 2014
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054500
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Dimensions of Macroeconomic Uncertainty : A Common Factor Analysis
Henzel, Steffen - 2014
Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a possible driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the different dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045927
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Policy Risk and the Business Cycle
Born, Benjamin - 2013
recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining …The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078531
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Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2018
due to US EPU shocks are also found for the UK economy. This evidence, which refers to a large economy having a low trade … intensity with the US, supports our view that a channel other than trade could be behind our empirical results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914672
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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Crisis
Fidrmuc, Jan; Tichit, Ariane - CESifo - 2012
economic crises during the 1990s. We find that the severity of crisis has had a positive impact on the subsequent pace of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009645638
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Emergent Dynamics of a Macroeconomic Agent Based Model with Capital and Credit
Assenza, Tiziana; Gatti, Domenico Delli; Grazzini, Jakob - CESifo - 2014
Building on the framework put forward by Delli Gatti et al. 2011, in this paper we present and discuss a Macroeconomic Agent-Based Model with Capital and Credit (hereafter CC-MABM). The novelty of this model with respect to the previous framework consists in the introduction of capital goods...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010764279
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Distributional Consequences of Labor-demand Shocks: The 2008-09 Recession in Germany
Bargain, Olivier; Immervoll, Herwig; Peichl, Andreas; … - CESifo - 2011
The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008914277