This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …