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Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy and Public Debt : Historical and Time Series Evidence for the Period 1850-2010
Burret, Heiko - 2013
cointegration and the estimation of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). While we cannot reject …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085753
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International Financial Integration and Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics in Emerging Countries : Some Panel Evidence
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2009
The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155428
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Testing
Bergbauer, Annika - 2018
School systems regularly use student assessments for accountability purposes. But, as highlighted by our conceptual model, different configurations of assessment usage generate performance-conducive incentives of different strengths for different stakeholders in different school environments. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910939
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Global Warming and Extreme Events : Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Environmental Policy
Chen, Yu-Fu - 2010
The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139799
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On Welfare Frameworks and Catastrophic Climate Risks
Millner, Antony - 2021
Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to ‘fat-tailed’ risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009b). Such risks are suggested to be an inevitable consequence of scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315705
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Climate Treaties and Approaching Catastrophes
Barrett, Scott - 2021
If the threshold that triggers climate catastrophe is known with certainty, and the benefits of avoiding catastrophe are high relative to the costs, treaties can easily coordinate countries’ behavior so as to avoid the threshold. Where the net benefits of avoiding catastrophe are lower,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315826
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Sacrifice, Discounting and Climate Policy : Five Questions
Karp, Larry S. - 2021
I offer a selective review of discounting and climate policy. Analytic and numerical models show that different assumptions greatly change the degree to which decisions about climate policy depend on the discount rate. I discuss a claim that standard models exaggerate the current generation’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316325
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Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High Frequency Data on the US Dollar/British Pound Spot Exchange Rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082343
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Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
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Deterministic versus Stochastic Seasonal Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Cunado, Juncal; Gil-Alana, … - 2021
This paper considers a general model which allows for both deterministic and stochastic forms of seasonality, including fractional (stationary and nonstationary) orders of integration, and also incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks. Monte Carlo analysis shows that the suggested...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317060