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Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment? : A Revealed Preference Approach
Chirinko, Robert S. - 2011
spending – combined with investment theory – to estimate the discount rates used by managers. The standard story predicts that … between 15.1% and 45.2% too much capital. These estimates suggest that, even before they burst, bubbles adversely affect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123799
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Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017
This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963776
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Market Depth, Leverage, and Speculative Bubbles
Enders, Zeno - 2019
We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … lend to traders with limited liability in a bubble is endogenous. Bubbles reduce welfare of future investors. We provide … general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders' degree of leverage and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899999
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Structural Vector Autoregressions : Checking Identifying Long-Run Restrictions via Heteroskedasticity
Luetkepohl, Helmut - 2014
Long-run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057251
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Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity
Lahiri, Kajal - 2015
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017623
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Structural Vector Autoregressions with Heteroskedasticity - A Comparison of Different Volatility Models
Luetkepohl, Helmut - 2015
A growing literature uses changes in residual volatility for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. A number of different models for heteroskedasticity or conditional heteroskedasticity are proposed and used in applications in this context. This study reviews the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023197
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Extended Yule-Walker Identification of VARMA Models with Single- or Mixed-Frequency Data
Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016
Chen and Zadrozny (1998) developed the linear extended Yule-Walker (XYW) method for determining the parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with available covariances of mixed-frequency observations on the variables of the model. If the parameters are determined uniquely for available...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989633
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Identification and Estimation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve : Pairwise Differencing to Deal with Nonlinearity and Nonstationarity
Sen, Suphi - 2016
We propose an estimation strategy that accounts for two major problems raised in the empirical literature testing for the prevalence of the inverted U-shaped relation between environmental degradation and economic activity, namely the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. First, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993697
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Assessing Temporary Product-Specific Subsidies : A Time Series Intervention Analysis
Leuwer, David - 2018
We propose an analytical framework based on the Kalman Filter to quantify central distortionary effects of product-specific subsidies. In our application, we use time series of foreign and domestic order book levels during and after the temporary installation of a “cash for clunkers” subsidy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919055
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The Economic Roots of the Rise of Trumpism
Komlos, John - 2018
Donald Trump won the election in 2016 largely because enough voters in three states, all in the Rustbelt, who had voted for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, switched their vote from Democratic to Republican. Economic dislocations played a crucial role in these swing states or democratic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924354