The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework … of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief …

.2% higher today if productivity-enhancing investment intensity had remained at its pre-crisis level …This paper identifies the mechanism through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Theory … suggests that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a gap …

Natural-resource taxation and investment exhibit cycles in a vast number of countries, driving political turmoil and … investments, which in turn prompts it to increase taxes next period. This induces low investment thus low future taxes, and so on …

aggregate, industry-wide information (e.g., industry trends) or disaggregate information (e.g., firm-specific information …). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly associated with expectations even when controlling for aggregate … information at high-dimensional industry levels. Moreover, aggregate and disaggregate information explain comparable shares of the …

question in the context of a heterogeneous-firm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital …

We estimate the effect of electorally induced policy uncertainty on investment in the manufacturing sector. Because …, and because the policies relevant to business investment vary systematically by party, uncertainty over the partisan … affiliation of the future governor is a source of political risk to firms considering business investment. More importantly, the …