Similar Search Results

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle

Carstensen, Kai - 2017

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955198

Markov-Switching and the IFO Business Climate : The IFO Business Cycle Traffic Lights

Abberger, Klaus - 2010

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148053

Worker Identity, Employment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policy

Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Snower, Dennis J. - 2021

This paper provides a model of “social hysteresis,” whereby long, deep recessions demotivate workers and thereby lead them to change their work ethic. In switching from a pro-work to an anti-work identity, their incentives to seek and retain work fall and consequently their employment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315765

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil : A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

Chen, Yu-Fu - 2009

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156881

The European Central Bank's QE : A New Hope

Wieladek, Tomasz - 2016

We examine the impact of the ECB's QE on Euro Area real GDP and core CPI with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2012M6 to 2016M4. We assess the total impact via a counter-factual exercise, country-by-country and through alternative transmission channels. QE announcement shocks are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986934

The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession : Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis

Schnabl, Gunther - 2013

The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081055

Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area

Stæhr, Karsten - 2008

This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future … counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from … the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773620

Measuring Synchronicity and Co-Movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area

Mink, Mark - 2011

We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756787

Unexpected Loan Losses and Bank Capital in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area

Hristov, Nikolay - 2016

We develop a stylized DSGE model in which banks face capital regulation and their loan portfolios are subject to non-diversifiable losses due to aggregate shocks. The framework is used to explore the importance of the interaction between macroeconomic conditions, credit default and bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978077

Loan Supply Shocks During the Financial Crisis : Evidence for the Euro Area

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2021

This paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the Euro Area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis. In particular, we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks, which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316038