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The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession : Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis
Schnabl, Gunther - 2013
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081055
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Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle
Carstensen, Kai - 2017
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955198
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Worker Identity, Employment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policy
Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Snower, Dennis J. - 2021
This paper provides a model of “social hysteresis,” whereby long, deep recessions demotivate workers and thereby lead them to change their work ethic. In switching from a pro-work to an anti-work identity, their incentives to seek and retain work fall and consequently their employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315765
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Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil : A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty
Chen, Yu-Fu - 2009
The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156881
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Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area
Staehr, Karsten - 2008
This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future … counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from … the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773620
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The European Central Bank's QE : A New Hope
Wieladek, Tomasz - 2016
We examine the impact of the ECB's QE on Euro Area real GDP and core CPI with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2012M6 to 2016M4. We assess the total impact via a counter-factual exercise, country-by-country and through alternative transmission channels. QE announcement shocks are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986934
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Does the Euro-Zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation
Flaig, Gebhard; Wollmershaeuser, Timo - 2021
This paper presents a stress indicator for the eurozone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP … that stress in the eurozone is mainly due to different trend growth rates and that for most of the Euro-zone countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317182
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The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union : Are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?
Colciago, Andrea; Muscatelli, Anton; Ropele, Tiziano; … - 2021
We assess the role of national fiscal policies, as automatic stabilizers, within a monetary union. We use a two-country New Keynesian DGE model which incorporates non-Ricardian consumers (as in Gali et al. 2004) and a home bias in the composition of national consumption bundles. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317638
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Deterministic versus Stochastic Seasonal Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Cunado, Juncal; Gil-Alana, … - 2021
This paper considers a general model which allows for both deterministic and stochastic forms of seasonality, including fractional (stationary and nonstationary) orders of integration, and also incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks. Monte Carlo analysis shows that the suggested...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317060
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A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2021
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317169